September 5, the very eve before Mid-autumn Festival, Wendy Dobson, the former Canadian Associate Deputy Minister of Finance, visited the Economic and Financial Scholar Forum as a guest and delivered a lecture titled Forecast of Future: the Global Economy in Changes via online video in Room 106, Main Building of Shahe Campus, offering an academic feast for the students from various departments who occupied every seat.
The lecture was hosted by Zhigang Huang, the associate professor, who introduced Pro Wendy Dobson briefly at the beginning. Pro Dobson is Director, Institute for International Business, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto currently, prior to that she was Associate Deputy Minister of Finance in Canada. Her research focuses on emerging market economies, economic integration in North America, the international financial system, regional and global governance, and Canadian public policy issues. At the same time, she also develops deep comprehension about Chinese economy with several works about Chinese economy published.
Pro Dobson began her speech by vividly and affectionately calling the memory of visiting China for the first time in 1978. Pro Dobson introduced five changes that the global economy was going through. Firstly, Asia would play a vital role in global economy. China, India, Japan and Indonesia would rank among the top 10 economies in the world by 2020. Pro Dobson specially stressed that innovations and technological advances would play a decisive role in the economic rebalance of China and in the economic growth of other economies. Secondly, major economies in the world including India, Mexico, China, Korea and Japan, were facing the threat of aging. Thirdly, urbanization and the growth of middle class were unavoidable. China, India and other Asian countries were experiencing relatively rapid urbanization, while in U.S.A., Europe, Japan, China and India, the middle class has been kept growing. Fourthly, the global economic patterns would be more diversifying. The fact that Chinese economy was rising while developed countries such as U.S.A, Japan and Europe etc. viewed a decline in both the growth rate and economic status, accelerating the changing of the economic pattern. Fifthly, risk and uncertainty are increasing. The slow recovery of European economy, the slowing down of Chinese and North American economy, the middle-income trap that emerging markets were facing, the changes in climate, the aging, as well as the uncertain supply of food, water and energy, all contributed to the uncertainty and risk in the global economic development where China plays the most significant role in the transition. Pro Dobson then further expressed her view towards how China and the rest of the world could reply to the changes and how the global governance could be reformed.
After the brilliant lecture, students took the opportunity to ask questions and interact with the professor. They further discussed the impact that urbanization, the Hukou system and the excess investment would have on Chinese economy, as well as the problems of the source of innovations and the aging of population.
The lecture not only enriched the knowledge students had about global economic changes, but also expanded the international view of analyzing and comprehending economic development, creating a favorable intellectual atmosphere.
