Topic: Are recoveries all the same?

Speaker: Yufan Huang, assistant professor of International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business.

He has got a bachelor's degree in economics from National chengchi university (Taiwan) in 2004 and a master's degree in economics from National Taiwan university in 2006. What’s more, he has received a doctor's degree in economics from the university of Washington in 2013.Dr Huang 's research field include empirical macroeconomics, bayesian econometrics, nonlinear time series, and monetary economics.

Time: October 28, 2015 (Wednesday), 12:30-13:30

Location: 913 room in the main building, Central University of Finance and Economics

Host: Gu Jin, lecturer of Central University of Finance and Economics, School of Finance

Abstract: Departing from the existing literature, we allow the shape of recovery to be different following each recession. We are motivated by the observation that post-recession growth paths seem to vary a great deal across different recessions. Using U.S. data, we find significant evidence for U-shaped recovery. However, the probability of a U-shaped exhibits large variations across recessions. Specifically, the recent three recoveries are very likely to be L-shaped. We also compute Beveridge-Nelson trends and cycles during each recession. We find that early recessions were largely due to drops in cyclical activity, but that recent recessions are associated almost entirely with losses in the permanent component of GDP.