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【Tan Xiaofen】Based on the oil price fluctuations of decomposition of the international oil price shock impact on China's industry: 1998-2015

作者:     日期:2015-12-31    来源:

 “China industrial economy” 2015, 12 journals published the article of professor Tan Xiaofen and his partners Han Jian and Yin Wuxian:" Based on the oil price fluctuations of decomposition of the international oil price shock impact on China's industry: 1998-2015". Yin Wuxian is a student of the third outstanding academic talents training project.

Our paper use SVAR model to make oil price shock decomposition, and then extracted the structured residual vector, and analysed the structural impact on the influence degree and difference of the whole the industry and related industry in China,  combining with the characteristics of the industry, they investigated the reasons behind the differences and the influence mechanism. The innovation of paper are: (1) research methods, using the method proposed by Kilian (2009), decompose the structural impact of oil price fluctuations into oil supply shocks, economic aggregate demand shock and oil specific demand shock, and decompose economic aggregate demand into developed countries and emerging economy's total demand, domestic and foreign economic aggregate demand, and specific demand shock impact is further distinguished between financial speculation and other specific demand shock, to observe the influence of the impact of the different sources of industry difference; (2) As the research object, they use the 37 industrial sector in China in 1998-2015 as the research object, inspects the influence degree and difference of the oil price shock to the industry, and then from angle of view such as energy intensity, degree of production of state-owned enterprises, industry monopoly, refined oil price forming mechanism, and the use of alternative energy sources to explain the influence and differences of oil supply shocks and specific demand shocks, to account for the influence of the demand shock from trade dependency.